Why I’m Not an Ideologue.

I choose not to be associated with any political ideology – neither libertarianism, liberalism nor conservatism – as I believe that it reinforces deep-seated tribal instincts that affects our stance and decision making on issues of importance.  It does so by imposing constraints on our ability to form good conclusions (motivational reasoning) and fosters conformity […]

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Miracles and Probability III

Background We discussed the challenges of accepting a miracle as true because it contradicts with how we know the world works. We then proceeded to ask the question: well, what happens if we have good evidence for the miracle? The solution to that problem was to translate our hypothesis, evidence and background knowledge into terms of […]

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Miracles and Probability II

In the previous post, we focused on how you can use the principle of analogy to conclude that if something contradicts what you already know (what we will call background knowledge), then, unsurprisingly, in all likelihood it is false.  We saw the limitations of this principle, however, especially when generalized to mean rare and new events, not […]

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Miracles and Probability I

We deem them myths not because of a prior bias that there can be no miracles, but because of the Principle of Analogy, the only alternative to which is believing everything in The National Inquirer. If we do not use the standard of current-day experience to evaluate claims from the past, what other standard is […]

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Which Tribe Do You Belong To?

Bias is a personal inclination, feeling or opinion – usually not reasoned out – that interferes with obtaining the truth.  As far as how we process information concerning ourselves and the world around us, psychologists have identified numerous cognitive biases, but none are more important than confirmation bias.  It essentially says that we confirm a hypothesis […]

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